Thursday, September 27, 2012

NFL week four picks

Don’t call it a comeback! Glib song quotes aside, it’s a great feeling getting back on track after a terrible week NFL tipping. Week two was an absolute personal picking disaster, whilst last week, whilst not a personal triumph, was a tasty return to winning ways at 9-7 and 2-2 in my contrived ‘Finest Four’ format (which is now 7-5 on the season). It should be interesting, this week four, to see what kind of an effect the returning full time NFL referees has on the games. Up to now, the replacement referees had statistically been favouring the home under dogs, no doubt swayed by the home crowds. Will week four see a return to favourite dominance? Very excited about my Finest Four this week. Good luck, and enjoy the games!

Season to date
  • Last week against the spread: 9-7
  • Overall record against the spread: 21-27-2
  • Finest Four against the spread last week: 2-2
  • Finest Four against the spread overall: 7-5
  • Winning percentage: 43.75%
  • The finest four percentage: 58.5%

The finest four. 
Four picks to boost your bankroll


The Game: Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
Current line:  Arizona -6
The Science: This is not a mirage. The Cards are for real. Dating back to last season their current 13 game record is now 11-2. They are winning games with timely plays on offence and an absolutely suffocating defence that will become a household name very soon. Meanwhile Miami just lost Reggie Bush to injury, and lost a gut wrenching game to the Jets last week. Arizona’s defence will throttle Miami’s simply pathetic offence, we could conceivably be looking at a shut-out here.
The Score:  Miami 9 Arizona 24
The Pick: Arizona -6

The Game: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Current line: Green Bay -9
The Science: Look, the Saints are not going to go 0-16 this season, and the Packers defence in particular look anything but World beaters. The Saints have no problem scoring points, they are just leaking them faster than they can score them. No doubt Green Bay will get theirs, but there is also no doubt the Saints have a World class offence and can definitely stay within 9. Fully expect Green Bay to find a way to win, just not by more than 9.
The Score: New Orleans 30 Green Bay 33
The Pick: New Orleans +9

The Game:  New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Current line:  New England -4
The Science: A couple of elements stand out when trying to figure this one out. First of all, the Bills will miss their running back CJ Spiller to injury. There is a big drop off in skill level to his replacements. This means the Patriots can scheme against the Bills passing game. Secondly, Tom Brady is 18-2 against the Bills, and as an aside, Brady looked very sharp on the road in Baltimore last Sunday night. The Patriots are under pressure, and must have this one. Recent history tells us they generally find a way to come bouncing back from tough losses.
The Score:  New England 30 Buffalo 17
The Pick: New England -4

The Game: San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets
Current line:  San Francisco 49ers -4
The Science:  The 49ers endured a setback last week, losing to the Vikings in a fashion that set alarm bells ringing on the West coast. Two great defences in action here, so you can expect a pretty low scoring game. Both teams are good at winning ugly, we know that, and whoever wins, it will probably be a low scoring, dour affair. Those 4 points are just too many for a scrappy home team like the Jets.
The Score: San Francisco 20 New York 23
The Pick:  New York +4



The rest. 
Definitely. Probably. Maybe.


The Game: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Current line: Baltimore -12
The Score:  Cleveland 16 Baltimore 30
The Pick:  Baltimore -12

The Game: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Current line:  Atlanta -7
The Score:  Carolina 19 Atlanta 28
The Pick:  Atlanta -7

The Game: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Current line: Detroit -6.5
The Score: Minnesota 30 Detroit 33
The Pick: Minnesota +6.5

The Game: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Current line: Kansas -1
The Score:  San Diego 20 Kansas 26
The Pick: Kansas -1

The Game: Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams
Current line: Seattle -1
The Score:  Seattle 23 St Louis 26
The Pick: St Louis +1

The Game: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Current line: Houston -12
The Score: Tennessee 20 Houston 30
The Pick: Tennessee +12

The Game: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Current line: Denver -6.5
The Score: Oakland 24 Denver 28
The Pick: Oakland +6.5

The Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Current line: Cincinnati -1
The Score:  Cincinnati 24 Jacksonville 27
The Pick: Jacksonville +1

The Game: Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current line:  Tampa -3
The Score: Washington 30 Tampa 26
The Pick:  Washington +3

The Game: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Current line: Philadelphia -1
The Score:  New York 28 Philadelphia 20
The Pick:  New York +1

The Game: Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys
Current line: Dallas -3.5
The Score: Chicago 24 Dallas 20
The Pick:  Chicago +3.5



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Team Ireland at the European Championships, Croatia, 2000.

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